FairValue

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Adam

Smith

RBEngland · AFC Bournemouth

№ 61841Emerging €969k −1.17

Player dossierPremier League

AdamSmith

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
AFC Bournemouth
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
35
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Smith at €300k. Model A, which never saw Smith during training, estimates €969k: the market value is 69% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €511k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.17A €969k▼ −0.53B €511k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
2,902
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
35/50
Min / app
58
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Smith…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €969k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Adam Smith's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 64th, Minutes, two years 51st, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 34th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals64thAssists51stMinutes27thStarts34thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.06 this player0.04 defender median64th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Mar 2010
Peak
€9M
Dec 2019
Model target
€300k
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
2 club changes
Jun 2026€300kAFC BournemouthValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €300k, AFC Bournemouth. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-03-29€300kTorquay United
2013-07-25€300kTottenham Hotspur
2015-02-24€300kAFC Bournemouth
2015-07-01€500kAFC Bournemouth
2016-02-09€1.5MAFC Bournemouth
2016-08-01€2MAFC Bournemouth
2017-02-20€2.5MAFC Bournemouth
2017-06-28€5MAFC Bournemouth
2018-01-02€5MAFC Bournemouth
2018-05-28€5MAFC Bournemouth
2018-12-19€5MAFC Bournemouth
2019-06-13€7MAFC Bournemouth
2019-12-10€9MAFC Bournemouth
2020-04-08€7MAFC Bournemouth
2020-10-15€5MAFC Bournemouth
2021-03-10€4MAFC Bournemouth
2021-06-30€3.5MAFC Bournemouth
2021-11-24€2MAFC Bournemouth
2022-05-13€1.5MAFC Bournemouth
2022-11-03€1.5MAFC Bournemouth
2023-06-20€1.2MAFC Bournemouth
2023-12-19€1MAFC Bournemouth
2024-05-27€1MAFC Bournemouth
2024-12-16€1MAFC Bournemouth
2025-05-30€750kAFC Bournemouth
2025-12-09€500kAFC Bournemouth
2026-06-03€300kAFC Bournemouth

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.172

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 1% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 9% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Smith appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).