FairValue

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Marko

Stamenić

CMNew Zealand · Swansea City

№ 617018Established €5.8M −0.65

Player dossierPremier League

MarkoStamenić

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Swansea City
League
Premier League
Nationality
New Zealand
Age
24
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Stamenić at €3M. Model A, which never saw Stamenić during training, estimates €5.8M: the market value is 48% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.92. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.65A €5.8M▲ +0.75B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
930
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
11/22
Min / app
42
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Stamenić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €5.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Marko Stamenić's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 51st, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 64th10thGoals51stAssists12thMinutes21stStarts4thRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

4% this player0% midfielder median64th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jan 2020
Peak
€5M
Jun 2024
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
14
6 club changes
May 2026€3MSwansea CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, Swansea City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-01-09€75kTeam Wellington (2004-2021)
2020-12-23€100kFC Copenhagen U19
2021-06-04€100kFC Copenhagen U19
2021-12-28€200kHB Köge
2022-06-20€250kHB Köge
2022-12-22€400kFC Copenhagen
2023-06-26€500kFC Copenhagen
2023-12-27€1MRed Star Belgrade
2024-06-10€5MRed Star Belgrade
2024-12-18€4.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-03-14€4MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-05-23€3MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-12-03€3MSwansea City
2026-05-28€3MSwansea City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.654

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 12% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Stamenić appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).