FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Stavros

Gavriel

RWCyprus · Zulte Waregem

№ 613983Emerging €512k +0.16

Player dossierPro League

StavrosGavriel

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Zulte Waregem
League
Pro League
Nationality
Cyprus
Age
24
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gavriel at €600k. Model A, which never saw Gavriel during training, estimates €512k: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €765k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €512k▼ −0.24B €765k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
624
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
7/22
Min / app
28
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gavriel…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €512k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Stavros Gavriel's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 22nd, Assists per 90 49th, Minutes, two years 6th, Starts 12th, Minutes, last 365 days 20th, European club minutes 28th22ndGoals49thAssists6thMinutes12thStarts20thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.14 this player0.15 attacker median49th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
May 2021
Peak
€800k
Apr 2025
Model target
€600k
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
3 club changes
Jun 2026€600kZulte WaregemValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €600k, Zulte Waregem. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-05-14€300kAPOEL Nicosia
2022-01-11€250kAPOEL Nicosia
2022-06-20€250kAPOEL Nicosia
2023-01-10€300kAkritas Chlorakas
2023-05-31€400kAkritas Chlorakas
2023-12-28€450kAPOEL Nicosia
2024-06-20€400kZulte Waregem
2024-10-15€500kZulte Waregem
2024-12-20€500kZulte Waregem
2025-04-24€800kZulte Waregem
2025-12-10€800kZulte Waregem
2026-06-04€600kZulte Waregem

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.159

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 13% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 19% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gavriel appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).