Luís
Esteves
AMPortugal · Gil Vicente FC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
LuísEsteves
AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Gil Vicente FC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 173 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Esteves at €6M. Model A, which never saw Esteves during training, estimates €3.1M: the market value is 95% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.95. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 67
- Minutes
- 5,680
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 13
- Started
- 65/67
- Min / app
- 85
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Esteves…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
97% this player69% midfielder median96th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €225k
- Dec 2022
- Peak
- €6M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €6M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 10
- 1 club change
May 2026: €6M, Gil Vicente FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-28 | €225k | CD Nacional |
| 2023-06-28 | €275k | CD Nacional |
| 2023-12-14 | €400k | CD Nacional |
| 2024-06-20 | €700k | CD Nacional |
| 2024-12-19 | €800k | CD Nacional |
| 2025-05-30 | €1M | CD Nacional |
| 2025-09-30 | €1.5M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2025-12-18 | €2M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2026-03-19 | €4M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2026-05-28 | €6M | Gil Vicente FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.666
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 80% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Esteves appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BacherCBGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€6M
- NiakatéCBSC Braga · Liga Portugal€6M
- TravassosRBMoreirense FC · Liga Portugal€6M
- LeloLBSC Braga · Liga Portugal€6M
- CasemiroDMManchester United · midfielders€6M
- SabitzerCMBorussia Dortmund · midfielders€6M
- AndrichDMBayer 04 Leverkusen · midfielders€6M
- PašalićCMAtalanta BC · midfielders€6M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).