MathieuGorgelin

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club: RC Lens
League: Ligue 1
Nationality: France
Age: 35
Height: 187 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gorgelin at €200k. Model A, which never saw Gorgelin during training, estimates €255k: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €193k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 17
Minutes: 1,530
Started: 17/17
Min / app: 90
Cards: 2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gorgelin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Jul 2010
Peak: €1M; Jun 2018
Model target: €200k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 32; 3 club changes

Jun 2026€200kRC LensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €200k, RC Lens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2010-07-16	€50k	Olympique Lyon
2010-12-28	€150k	Olympique Lyon
2011-05-24	€200k	Olympique Lyon
2013-01-07	€200k	Olympique Lyon
2013-05-30	€200k	Olympique Lyon
2014-01-14	€300k	Olympique Lyon
2014-08-07	€250k	Olympique Lyon
2015-01-14	€400k	Olympique Lyon
2015-06-06	€400k	Olympique Lyon
2016-02-04	€400k	Olympique Lyon
2016-07-13	€400k	Olympique Lyon
2017-01-16	€400k	Olympique Lyon
2017-06-01	€400k	Olympique Lyon
2018-01-24	€400k	Olympique Lyon
2018-06-04	€1M	Olympique Lyon
2018-12-17	€1M	Olympique Lyon
2019-06-03	€1M	Olympique Lyon
2020-01-06	€1M	Le Havre AC
2020-04-08	€800k	Le Havre AC
2020-11-11	€800k	Le Havre AC
2021-06-25	€800k	Le Havre AC
2021-12-27	€600k	Le Havre AC
2022-06-02	€500k	Le Havre AC
2022-10-28	€400k	Le Havre AC
2023-04-06	€250k	Le Havre AC
2023-06-16	€200k	Le Havre AC
2023-12-18	€200k	Le Havre AC
2024-06-03	€200k	Le Havre AC
2024-12-10	€200k	Le Havre AC
2025-06-03	€300k	Le Havre AC
2025-10-21	€250k	Without Club
2026-06-01	€200k	RC Lens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.241

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 1% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

See them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 9% of the 485 goalkeepers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Gorgelin appears

TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).