Melker
Ellborg
GKSweden · Sunderland AFC
Player dossierPremier League
MelkerEllborg
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Sunderland AFC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Sweden
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Ellborg at €3M. Model A, which never saw Ellborg during training, estimates €9.7M: the market value is 69% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×3.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 11
- Minutes
- 990
- Started
- 11/11
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ellborg…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
64% this player0% goalkeeper median100th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Jun 2021
- Peak
- €3M
- Mar 2026
- Model target
- €3M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €3M, Sunderland AFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-09 | €25k | Malmö FF |
| 2021-09-17 | €50k | Malmö FF |
| 2021-12-17 | €50k | Malmö FF |
| 2022-06-24 | €100k | IFK Malmö |
| 2023-06-27 | €100k | Malmö FF |
| 2023-12-08 | €200k | Malmö FF |
| 2024-07-12 | €200k | Trelleborgs FF |
| 2024-12-27 | €200k | Malmö FF |
| 2025-06-18 | €300k | Malmö FF |
| 2025-11-19 | €500k | Malmö FF |
| 2026-03-09 | €3M | Sunderland AFC |
| 2026-06-03 | €3M | Sunderland AFC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.171
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 12% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 68% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ellborg appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- WelbeckCFBrighton & Hove Albion · Premier League€3M
- KeaneCBEverton FC · Premier League€3M
- DaviesCBTottenham Hotspur · Premier League€3M
- JiménezCFFulham FC · Premier League€3M
- StegenGKGirona FC · goalkeepers€3M
- VlachodimosGKSevilla FC · goalkeepers€3M
- SchwäbeGK1.FC Köln · goalkeepers€3M
- ProvedelGKSS Lazio · goalkeepers€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).