Casper
Widell
CBSweden · Excelsior Rotterdam
Player dossierEredivisie
CasperWidell
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Excelsior Rotterdam
- League
- Eredivisie
- Nationality
- Sweden
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
EredivisieReading the valuation
The market values Widell at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Widell during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 19% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 35
- Minutes
- 3,160
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 35/35
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Widell…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player83% defender median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2021
- Peak
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 1 club change
May 2026: €1.5M, Excelsior Rotterdam. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-05 | €100k | Helsingborgs IF |
| 2021-12-29 | €275k | Helsingborgs IF |
| 2022-06-24 | €600k | Helsingborgs IF |
| 2022-09-02 | €750k | Helsingborgs IF |
| 2022-12-14 | €900k | Helsingborgs IF |
| 2023-06-27 | €800k | Helsingborgs IF |
| 2023-12-15 | €800k | Excelsior Rotterdam |
| 2024-05-31 | €700k | Excelsior Rotterdam |
| 2024-10-14 | €600k | Excelsior Rotterdam |
| 2024-12-10 | €650k | Excelsior Rotterdam |
| 2025-06-09 | €800k | Excelsior Rotterdam |
| 2025-12-02 | €900k | Excelsior Rotterdam |
| 2026-05-28 | €1.5M | Excelsior Rotterdam |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.216
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Eredivisie425 players · median €1M
Valued above 54% of the 425 Eredivisie players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Widell appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- TraunerCBFeyenoord Rotterdam · Eredivisie€1.5M
- PjacaLWFC Twente Enschede · Eredivisie€1.5M
- NieuwkoopRBFeyenoord Rotterdam · Eredivisie€1.5M
- SampstedRBGo Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie€1.5M
- KüblerRBSC Freiburg · defenders€1.5M
- WalkerRBBurnley FC · defenders€1.5M
- TrippierRBNewcastle United · defenders€1.5M
- MeunierRBLOSC Lille · defenders€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).