FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Daisuke

Yokota

RWJapan · Hannover 96

№ 602781Emerging €1.7M +0.03

Player dossierBundesliga

DaisukeYokota

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Hannover 96
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Japan
Age
25
Height
181 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Yokota at €1.7M. Model A, which never saw Yokota during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 3% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.03A €1.7M▲ +0.31B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
12
Minutes
836
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
10/12
Min / app
70
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Yokota…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.7MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Daisuke Yokota's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 15th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 14th, Starts 87th, Minutes, last 365 days 1st, European club minutes 88th15thGoals93rdAssists14thMinutes87thStarts1stRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.32 this player0.15 attacker median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€225k
Jun 2021
Peak
€2.5M
Dec 2024
Model target
€1.7M
Dec 2025
Valuations
12
4 club changes
Dec 2025€1.7MHannover 96Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.7M, Hannover 96. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-16€225kValmiera FC
2021-12-24€300kValmiera FC
2022-06-13€500kValmiera FC
2022-11-23€1MValmiera FC
2023-06-09€800kGórnik Zabrze
2023-12-29€1MGórnik Zabrze
2024-03-22€2MKAA Gent
2024-06-04€2MKAA Gent
2024-12-19€2.5M1.FC Kaiserslautern
2025-06-19€2.5M1.FC Kaiserslautern
2025-10-09€2MHannover 96
2025-12-16€1.7MHannover 96

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.026

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 17% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1.7MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 42% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Yokota appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).