Marius
Elvius
RBDenmark · Hvidovre IF
Player dossierSuperliga
MariusElvius
RBRight-BackDefender
- Club
- Hvidovre IF
- League
- Superliga
- Nationality
- Denmark
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 18 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Elvius at €850k. Model A, which never saw Elvius during training, estimates €433k: the market value is 96% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.96. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €571k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 18
- Minutes
- 982
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 9/18
- Min / app
- 55
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Elvius…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €850k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% defender median30th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Dec 2018
- Peak
- €850k
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €850k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 16
- 6 club changes
Dec 2025: €850k, Hvidovre IF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-21 | €25k | HB Köge Youth |
| 2019-09-06 | €50k | HB Köge U19 |
| 2020-03-09 | €50k | HB Köge U19 |
| 2020-07-30 | €100k | HB Köge U19 |
| 2020-12-23 | €150k | HB Köge |
| 2021-06-29 | €150k | Hellas Verona Primavera |
| 2021-10-06 | €250k | HB Köge |
| 2021-12-28 | €300k | HB Köge |
| 2022-06-20 | €300k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2022-12-22 | €350k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2023-06-26 | €450k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2023-12-21 | €600k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2024-06-10 | €750k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2024-12-09 | €700k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2025-06-16 | €700k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2025-12-18 | €850k | Hvidovre IF |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.675
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Superliga256 players · median €800k
Valued above 51% of the 256 Superliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 33% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Elvius appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- PoulsenLBSilkeborg IF · Superliga€850k
- YakobCMAarhus GF · Superliga€850k
- BundgaardGKSönderjyske Fodbold · Superliga€850k
- RieperCBFC Fredericia · Superliga€850k
- BartraCBReal Betis Balompié · defenders€900k
- CabreraCBRCD Espanyol Barcelona · defenders€900k
- BiraghiLBTorino FC · defenders€900k
- FoulquierRBValencia CF · defenders€900k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).