FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Dmytro

Riznyk

GKUkraine · Shakhtar Donetsk

№ 597880Established €10.8M −0.30

Player dossierPremier Liha

DmytroRiznyk

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Shakhtar Donetsk
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
27
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Riznyk at €8M. Model A, which never saw Riznyk during training, estimates €10.8M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €14M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.30A €10.8M▼ −0.56B €14M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
6,321
Started
69/69
Min / app
92
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Riznyk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €10.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dmytro Riznyk's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 88th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 79th, European club minutes 88th88thMinutes62ndStarts79thRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% goalkeeper median88th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
May 2019
Peak
€8M
Jun 2026
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
2 club changes
Jun 2026€8MShakhtar DonetskValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, Shakhtar Donetsk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-05-07€50kVorskla Poltava II
2020-01-08€100kVorskla Poltava
2020-09-04€400kVorskla Poltava
2021-01-14€800kVorskla Poltava
2021-06-07€1MVorskla Poltava
2021-09-03€1.5MVorskla Poltava
2021-12-20€2MVorskla Poltava
2022-05-18€2MVorskla Poltava
2022-12-06€2MVorskla Poltava
2023-03-28€2.5MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-06-21€2MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-09-14€3MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-12-11€5MShakhtar Donetsk
2024-06-06€7MShakhtar Donetsk
2024-12-17€7MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-06-10€7MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-12-18€7MShakhtar Donetsk
2026-06-02€8MShakhtar Donetsk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.302

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 96% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 85% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Riznyk appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).