FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Justin

Njinmah

RWGermany · SV Werder Bremen

№ 596153Established €5.2M −0.04

Player dossierBundesliga

JustinNjinmah

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
SV Werder Bremen
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
25
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Njinmah at €5M. Model A, which never saw Njinmah during training, estimates €5.2M: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €5.2M▲ +0.50B €3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
64
Minutes
3,114
Goals
8
Assists
4
Started
33/64
Min / app
49
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Njinmah…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €5.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Justin Njinmah's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 38th, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 73rd, European club minutes 28th44thGoals38thAssists68thMinutes37thStarts73rdRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,015 this player1,301 attacker median73rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2019
Peak
€9M
Mar 2024
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
21
3 club changes
May 2026€5MSV Werder BremenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, SV Werder Bremen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-07-28€25kHolstein Kiel II
2020-02-20€25kHolstein Kiel II
2020-09-16€25kHolstein Kiel II
2021-06-11€50kHolstein Kiel II
2021-09-10€75kSV Werder Bremen II
2021-12-28€175kSV Werder Bremen II
2022-03-16€300kBorussia Dortmund II
2022-06-01€400kBorussia Dortmund II
2022-10-05€500kBorussia Dortmund II
2022-12-08€500kBorussia Dortmund II
2023-03-30€700kBorussia Dortmund II
2023-06-13€800kBorussia Dortmund II
2023-10-18€3MSV Werder Bremen
2023-12-14€3MSV Werder Bremen
2024-03-27€9MSV Werder Bremen
2024-05-29€9MSV Werder Bremen
2024-12-20€9MSV Werder Bremen
2025-03-27€7MSV Werder Bremen
2025-06-05€7MSV Werder Bremen
2025-12-19€7MSV Werder Bremen
2026-05-27€5MSV Werder Bremen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.040

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 46% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Njinmah appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).