FairValue

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Portrait of Niels Nkounkou

Niels

Nkounkou

LBFrance · Torino FC

№ 591193Established €2M +0.25

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

NielsNkounkou

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Torino FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
France
Age
25
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nkounkou at €2.6M. Model A, which never saw Nkounkou during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 28% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.25A €2M▼ −0.08B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
1,479
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
15/37
Min / app
40
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nkounkou…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.6MModel A €2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Niels Nkounkou's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 22nd, Starts 3rd, Minutes, last 365 days 13th, European club minutes 94th18thGoals63rdAssists22ndMinutes3rdStarts13thRecent94thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

29% this player0% defender median94th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jul 2020
Peak
€7.5M
Oct 2023
Model target
€2.6M
May 2026
Valuations
18
5 club changes
May 2026€2.6MTorino FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.6M, Torino FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-07-30€500kEverton FC
2020-10-13€3MEverton FC
2021-03-18€3MEverton FC
2021-06-08€3MEverton FC
2022-01-06€3MStandard Liège
2022-04-12€2.2MStandard Liège
2022-10-27€2.5MCardiff City
2023-04-06€3MAS Saint-Étienne
2023-06-16€5MAS Saint-Étienne
2023-10-18€7.5MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-12-14€6MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-03-27€7.5MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-05-29€7.5MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-12-20€6MEintracht Frankfurt
2025-03-27€5MEintracht Frankfurt
2025-06-05€3.5MEintracht Frankfurt
2025-12-23€3.5MTorino FC
2026-05-29€2.6MTorino FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.249

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 28% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2.6MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 58% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nkounkou appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).