Migouel
Alfarela
CFFrance · Aris Thessaloniki
Player dossierSuper League
MigouelAlfarela
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Aris Thessaloniki
- League
- Super League
- Nationality
- France
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 173 cm
- Foot
- –
- Valued
- 4 Jun 2026
Super LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Alfarela at €600k. Model A, which never saw Alfarela during training, estimates €802k: the market value is 25% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €803k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 27
- Minutes
- 1,183
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 11/27
- Min / app
- 44
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alfarela…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
29% this player0% attacker median93rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €300k
- Nov 2020
- Peak
- €800k
- Oct 2022
- Model target
- €600k
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €600k, Aris Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-11 | €300k | FC Annecy |
| 2021-06-25 | €400k | FC Annecy |
| 2021-10-27 | €500k | Paris FC |
| 2021-12-27 | €500k | Paris FC |
| 2022-06-02 | €600k | Paris FC |
| 2022-10-28 | €800k | SC Bastia |
| 2023-06-16 | €800k | SC Bastia |
| 2023-10-27 | €700k | SC Bastia |
| 2023-12-13 | €700k | SC Bastia |
| 2024-03-26 | €800k | SC Bastia |
| 2024-06-11 | €800k | SC Bastia |
| 2024-12-09 | €600k | Legia Warszawa |
| 2025-03-14 | €500k | Athens Kallithea |
| 2025-05-23 | €500k | Athens Kallithea |
| 2025-09-23 | €700k | Aris Thessaloniki |
| 2025-12-12 | €700k | Aris Thessaloniki |
| 2026-06-04 | €600k | Aris Thessaloniki |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.291
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Super League356 players · median €600k
Valued above 49% of the 356 Super League players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 19% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Alfarela appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SistoLWAE Larisa · Super League€600k
- BatubinsikaCBAE Larisa · Super League€600k
- KarachaliosDMOFI Crete · Super League€600k
- PokornyCBAE Kifisia · Super League€600k
- PavolettiCFCagliari Calcio · attackers€600k
- GhezzalRWOlympique Lyon · attackers€600k
- ManéRWKayserispor · attackers€600k
- CerriCFComo 1907 · attackers€600k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).