FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Pelle

Mattsson

CMDenmark · Norwich City

№ 587298Established €4.1M −0.31

Player dossierPremier League

PelleMattsson

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Norwich City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Denmark
Age
24
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Mattsson at €3M. Model A, which never saw Mattsson during training, estimates €4.1M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.31A €4.1M▼ −0.32B €4.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
3,778
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
43/45
Min / app
84
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mattsson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €4.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Pelle Mattsson's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 55th, Assists per 90 50th, Minutes, two years 71st, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 55th, European club minutes 73rd55thGoals50thAssists71stMinutes94thStarts55thRecent73rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

96% this player69% midfielder median94th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2019
Peak
€3M
Oct 2025
Model target
€3M
Dec 2025
Valuations
16
1 club change
Dec 2025€3MNorwich CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €3M, Norwich City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-09€50kSilkeborg IF
2019-12-22€50kSilkeborg IF
2020-07-31€50kSilkeborg IF
2020-12-23€50kSilkeborg IF
2021-06-04€150kSilkeborg IF
2021-12-28€150kSilkeborg IF
2022-06-20€150kSilkeborg IF
2022-09-13€250kSilkeborg IF
2022-12-22€250kSilkeborg IF
2023-06-26€400kSilkeborg IF
2023-12-21€500kSilkeborg IF
2024-06-10€650kSilkeborg IF
2024-12-09€850kSilkeborg IF
2025-06-16€1.3MSilkeborg IF
2025-10-06€3MNorwich City
2025-12-03€3MNorwich City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.305

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 12% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mattsson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).