FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Gavin Bazunu

Gavin

Bazunu

GKIreland · Stoke City

№ 585550Established €1.3M +1.81

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

GavinBazunu

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Stoke City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Ireland
Age
24
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bazunu at €8M. Model A, which never saw Bazunu during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 514% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×6.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €599k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.81A €1.3M▲ +2.59B €599k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
6
Minutes
540
Started
6/6
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bazunu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Gavin Bazunu's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 4th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 32nd4thMinutes62ndStarts2ndRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Oct 2021
Peak
€18M
Mar 2023
Model target
€8M
May 2026
Valuations
13
5 club changes
May 2026€8MStoke CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8M, Stoke City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-10-05€600kPortsmouth FC
2022-06-15€5MManchester City U23
2022-09-15€15MSouthampton FC
2022-11-03€15MSouthampton FC
2023-03-16€18MSouthampton FC
2023-06-20€15MSouthampton FC
2023-12-21€15MSouthampton FC
2024-05-24€15MSouthampton FC
2024-12-16€14MSouthampton FC
2025-03-26€11MStandard Liège
2025-05-30€9MSouthampton FC
2025-12-03€9MSouthampton FC
2026-05-28€8MStoke City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.814

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 27% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 85% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bazunu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).