FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jon

Pacheco

CBSpain · Deportivo Alavés

№ 580560Established €4.8M +0.03

Player dossierLaLiga

JonPacheco

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Deportivo Alavés
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
25
Height
184 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pacheco at €5M. Model A, which never saw Pacheco during training, estimates €4.8M: the market value is 3% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.03A €4.8M▲ +0.56B €2.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
3,444
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
39/47
Min / app
73
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pacheco…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €4.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jon Pacheco's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 45th, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 51st, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 70th45thGoals41stAssists61stMinutes51stStarts62ndRecent70thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

8% this player0% defender median70th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2019
Peak
€15M
Jun 2024
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
2 club changes
Jun 2026€5MDeportivo AlavésValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Deportivo Alavés. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-10€100kReal Sociedad B
2020-02-11€200kReal Sociedad B
2020-10-08€200kReal Sociedad B
2021-01-07€200kReal Sociedad B
2021-06-30€200kReal Sociedad B
2021-12-30€600kReal Sociedad B
2022-06-03€1MReal Sociedad B
2022-06-29€1MReal Sociedad B
2022-11-07€6MReal Sociedad
2023-06-13€6MReal Sociedad
2023-07-12€8MReal Sociedad
2023-12-22€8MReal Sociedad
2024-06-07€15MReal Sociedad
2024-12-27€10MReal Sociedad
2025-03-21€7.5MReal Sociedad
2025-06-09€6MReal Sociedad
2025-10-02€4MDeportivo Alavés
2025-12-12€5MDeportivo Alavés
2026-03-16€6MDeportivo Alavés
2026-06-05€5MDeportivo Alavés

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.032

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 57% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pacheco appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).