FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Fabio

Ferraro

LBBelgium · FCV Dender EH

№ 579084Emerging €1.2M −0.03

Player dossierPro League

FabioFerraro

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
FCV Dender EH
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
23
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ferraro at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Ferraro during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 3% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.03A €1.2M▼ −0.82B €2.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
59
Minutes
4,947
Goals
1
Assists
8
Started
58/59
Min / app
84
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ferraro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Fabio Ferraro's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 39th, Assists per 90 87th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 77th, European club minutes 30th39thGoals87thAssists83rdMinutes93rdStarts77thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

98% this player83% defender median93rd percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Oct 2022
Peak
€1.3M
Jun 2025
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
1 club change
Jun 2026€1.2MFCV Dender EHValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, FCV Dender EH. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-10-05€150kRWD Molenbeek
2022-12-22€150kRWD Molenbeek
2023-05-30€250kRWD Molenbeek
2023-12-28€200kFCV Dender EH
2024-06-20€200kFCV Dender EH
2024-10-02€450kFCV Dender EH
2024-12-11€600kFCV Dender EH
2025-03-26€1MFCV Dender EH
2025-06-12€1.3MFCV Dender EH
2025-12-10€1MFCV Dender EH
2026-06-04€1.2MFCV Dender EH

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.030

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 34% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ferraro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).