FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Jan Paul van Hecke

Jan Paul van

Hecke

CBNetherlands · Brighton & Hove Albion

№ 576314World Class €38.3M +0.16

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

Jan Paul vanHecke

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Brighton & Hove Albion
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
25
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hecke at €45M. Model A, which never saw Hecke during training, estimates €38.3M: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €33.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €38.3M▲ +0.29B €33.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
78
Minutes
6,792
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
75/78
Min / app
87
Cards
18Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hecke…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €45M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €45MModel A €38.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jan Paul van Hecke's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 65th, Assists per 90 59th, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 87th, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 30th65thGoals59thAssists97thMinutes87thStarts95thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,792 this player2,860 defender median97th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2019
Peak
€45M
Jun 2026
Model target
€45M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
3 club changes
Jun 2026€45MBrighton & Hove AlbionValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €45M, Brighton & Hove Albion. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-07-03€25kNAC Breda
2020-06-29€1.8MNAC Breda
2020-10-14€2MSC Heerenveen
2021-01-06€2.5MSC Heerenveen
2021-03-09€2.2MSC Heerenveen
2021-05-19€2.2MSC Heerenveen
2021-11-24€2MBlackburn Rovers
2022-05-13€5MBlackburn Rovers
2022-11-03€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-03-16€4MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-06-20€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-12-19€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-10-01€22MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-16€32MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-05-30€32MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-10-17€35MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-12-09€35MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-06-03€45MBrighton & Hove Albion

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.160

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 86% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 98% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hecke appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).