Strahinja

Pavlović

CBSerbia · AC Milan

№ 574671World Class €23.3M +0.54

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

StrahinjaPavlović

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: AC Milan
League: Serie A
Nationality: Serbia
Age: 25
Height: 194 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pavlović at €40M. Model A, which never saw Pavlović during training, estimates €23.3M: the market value is 71% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.71. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €19.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 73
Minutes: 5,984
Goals: 7
Assists: 3
Started: 68/73
Min / app: 82
Cards: 9Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pavlović…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,219 this player1,687 defender median93rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Jan 2019
Peak: €40M; May 2026
Model target: €40M; May 2026
Valuations: 22; 6 club changes

May 2026€40MAC MilanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €40M, AC Milan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2019-01-12	€50k	FK Partizan Belgrade
2019-06-09	€2M	FK Partizan Belgrade
2019-10-28	€8M	FK Partizan Belgrade
2020-04-08	€7.2M	FK Partizan Belgrade
2020-06-28	€10M	FK Partizan Belgrade
2020-10-12	€10M	AS Monaco
2021-01-07	€8M	AS Monaco
2021-06-07	€8M	Cercle Brugge
2021-12-16	€8M	AS Monaco
2022-06-08	€5M	FC Basel 1893
2022-09-20	€8M	Red Bull Salzburg
2022-11-10	€20M	Red Bull Salzburg
2023-06-12	€25M	Red Bull Salzburg
2023-12-11	€25M	Red Bull Salzburg
2024-05-21	€25M	Red Bull Salzburg
2024-10-18	€20M	AC Milan
2024-12-18	€17M	AC Milan
2025-03-25	€18M	AC Milan
2025-06-17	€18M	AC Milan
2025-12-23	€28M	AC Milan
2026-03-24	€35M	AC Milan
2026-05-29	€40M	AC Milan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.539

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 96% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 97% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Pavlović appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).