Lorenzo
Lucca
CFItaly · Nottingham Forest
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
LorenzoLucca
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Nottingham Forest
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Italy
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 201 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Lucca at €20M. Model A, which never saw Lucca during training, estimates €12.8M: the market value is 56% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 68
- Minutes
- 3,531
- Goals
- 17
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 39/68
- Min / app
- 52
- Cards
- 12Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lucca…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Goals per 90
Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.43 this player0.26 attacker median81st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €125k
- Jun 2019
- Peak
- €30M
- Oct 2025
- Model target
- €20M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 7 club changes
Jun 2026: €20M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-14 | €125k | Brescia Primavera |
| 2020-06-29 | €100k | SSD Palermo |
| 2021-01-13 | €175k | Palermo FC |
| 2021-06-23 | €300k | Palermo FC |
| 2021-10-14 | €5M | Pisa Sporting Club |
| 2021-12-29 | €6.5M | Pisa Sporting Club |
| 2022-06-06 | €6M | Pisa Sporting Club |
| 2022-11-11 | €6M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2023-06-23 | €5M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2023-12-20 | €6M | Udinese Calcio |
| 2024-03-12 | €8M | Udinese Calcio |
| 2024-06-05 | €12M | Udinese Calcio |
| 2024-10-18 | €18M | Udinese Calcio |
| 2024-12-18 | €18M | Udinese Calcio |
| 2025-03-25 | €22M | Udinese Calcio |
| 2025-06-17 | €22M | Udinese Calcio |
| 2025-10-07 | €30M | SSC Napoli |
| 2025-12-23 | €25M | SSC Napoli |
| 2026-06-03 | €20M | Nottingham Forest |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.443
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 54% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 87% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Lucca appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GrealishLWEverton FC · Premier League€20M
- IwobiLWFulham FC · Premier League€20M
- AndersenCBFulham FC · Premier League€20M
- DansoCBTottenham Hotspur · Premier League€20M
- SanéRWGalatasaray · attackers€20M
- AktürkoğluLWFenerbahce · attackers€20M
- KuboRWReal Sociedad · attackers€20M
- ZirkzeeCFManchester United · attackers€20M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).