Joshua
Zirkzee
CFNetherlands · Manchester United
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
JoshuaZirkzee
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Manchester United
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Netherlands
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 193 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Zirkzee at €20M. Model A, which never saw Zirkzee during training, estimates €19.3M: the market value is 4% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 72
- Minutes
- 2,755
- Goals
- 8
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 26/72
- Min / app
- 38
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Zirkzee…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
19% this player0% attacker median83rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- May 2019
- Peak
- €50M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €20M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 25
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €20M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-02 | €100k | FC Bayern Munich II |
| 2019-07-12 | €1M | FC Bayern Munich II |
| 2019-12-11 | €1M | FC Bayern Munich II |
| 2020-02-11 | €4M | FC Bayern Munich II |
| 2020-03-11 | €7M | FC Bayern Munich II |
| 2020-04-08 | €6.3M | FC Bayern Munich II |
| 2020-07-08 | €9M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-02-10 | €9M | Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 2021-06-03 | €8M | Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 2022-01-06 | €8M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2022-04-12 | €11M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2022-11-11 | €11M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2023-03-21 | €9M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2023-06-15 | €9M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2023-10-11 | €13M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2023-12-20 | €30M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2024-03-12 | €40M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2024-06-05 | €50M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2024-12-16 | €42M | Manchester United |
| 2025-03-18 | €35M | Manchester United |
| 2025-05-30 | €30M | Manchester United |
| 2025-10-17 | €28M | Manchester United |
| 2025-12-09 | €25M | Manchester United |
| 2026-03-09 | €22M | Manchester United |
| 2026-06-03 | €20M | Manchester United |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.037
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 54% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 87% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Zirkzee appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GrealishLWEverton FC · Premier League€20M
- IwobiLWFulham FC · Premier League€20M
- AndersenCBFulham FC · Premier League€20M
- DansoCBTottenham Hotspur · Premier League€20M
- SanéRWGalatasaray · attackers€20M
- AktürkoğluLWFenerbahce · attackers€20M
- KuboRWReal Sociedad · attackers€20M
- MuaniCFTottenham Hotspur · attackers€20M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).