FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Oihan

Sancet

AMSpain · Athletic Bilbao

№ 571020Elite €14.5M +0.55

Player dossierLaLiga

OihanSancet

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Athletic Bilbao
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
26
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sancet at €25M. Model A, which never saw Sancet during training, estimates €14.5M: the market value is 73% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.73. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €14.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.55A €14.5M▲ +0.57B €14.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
74
Minutes
4,528
Goals
23
Assists
4
Started
55/74
Min / app
61
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sancet…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €14.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Oihan Sancet's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 43rd, Minutes, two years 81st, Starts 59th, Minutes, last 365 days 79th, European club minutes 81st99thGoals43rdAssists81stMinutes59thStarts79thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.46 this player0.08 midfielder median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Aug 2018
Peak
€60M
Mar 2025
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
1 club change
Jun 2026€25MAthletic BilbaoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-08-12€1MBilbao Athletic
2019-02-19€1MBilbao Athletic
2019-06-29€1MBilbao Athletic
2019-09-10€1MBilbao Athletic
2019-12-20€2.5MBilbao Athletic
2020-04-08€2.3MBilbao Athletic
2020-10-08€4MAthletic Bilbao
2021-01-05€3.5MAthletic Bilbao
2021-06-10€3.5MAthletic Bilbao
2021-12-30€5MAthletic Bilbao
2022-03-21€15MAthletic Bilbao
2022-06-03€15MAthletic Bilbao
2022-09-23€20MAthletic Bilbao
2022-11-07€20MAthletic Bilbao
2023-03-23€30MAthletic Bilbao
2023-06-13€30MAthletic Bilbao
2023-12-22€35MAthletic Bilbao
2024-06-07€35MAthletic Bilbao
2024-10-11€40MAthletic Bilbao
2024-12-27€50MAthletic Bilbao
2025-03-21€60MAthletic Bilbao
2025-06-09€60MAthletic Bilbao
2025-12-12€40MAthletic Bilbao
2026-03-16€35MAthletic Bilbao
2026-06-05€25MAthletic Bilbao

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.546

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 89% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sancet appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).