FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Mateusz

Legowski

DMPoland · Eyüpspor

№ 570466Established €1.5M +0.31

Player dossierSüper Lig

MateuszLegowski

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Eyüpspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Poland
Age
23
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Legowski at €2M. Model A, which never saw Legowski during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 36% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.31A €1.5M▼ −0.08B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
1,573
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
18/27
Min / app
58
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Legowski…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mateusz Legowski's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 32nd, Minutes, two years 26th, Starts 45th, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 30th60thGoals32ndAssists26thMinutes45thStarts51stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.11 this player0.08 midfielder median60th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
May 2021
Peak
€3M
Dec 2023
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
16
3 club changes
May 2026€2MEyüpsporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Eyüpspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-05-21€50kPogon Szczecin
2021-10-15€250kPogon Szczecin
2021-12-31€400kPogon Szczecin
2022-04-07€600kPogon Szczecin
2022-06-14€800kPogon Szczecin
2022-09-29€1.5MPogon Szczecin
2022-11-16€1.5MPogon Szczecin
2023-06-09€1.8MPogon Szczecin
2023-10-11€2.5MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-12-20€3MUS Salernitana 1919
2024-06-05€3MUS Salernitana 1919
2024-12-23€3MYverdon Sport FC
2025-06-10€2.5MYverdon Sport FC
2025-12-17€2.2MEyüpspor
2026-03-05€2MEyüpspor
2026-05-21€2MEyüpspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.308

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 61% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Legowski appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).