FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
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  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Pape

Sy

GKSenegal · FC Metz

№ 568728Emerging €1M −0.55

Player dossierLigue 1

PapeSy

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FC Metz
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Senegal
Age
29
Height
206 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sy at €600k. Model A, which never saw Sy during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 42% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €897k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.55A €1M▼ −0.40B €897k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
8
Minutes
707
Started
8/8
Min / app
88
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Pape Sy's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 9th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 32nd9thMinutes62ndStarts29thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Oct 2023
Peak
€600k
Jun 2026
Model target
€600k
Jun 2026
Valuations
7
1 club change
Jun 2026€600kFC MetzValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €600k, FC Metz. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-10-02€300kRFC Seraing
2023-12-28€250kRFC Seraing
2024-06-20€250kRFC Seraing
2024-12-04€250kFC Metz
2025-06-02€300kFC Metz
2025-12-15€300kFC Metz
2026-06-01€600kFC Metz

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.545

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 5% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 32% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).