FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Connor

Barron

DMScotland · Rangers FC

№ 567151Established €4.8M −0.65

Player dossierPremiership

ConnorBarron

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Rangers FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
23
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Barron at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Barron during training, estimates €4.8M: the market value is 48% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.92. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.65A €4.8M▼ −1.14B €7.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
4,254
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
47/68
Min / app
63
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Barron…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €4.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Connor Barron's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 78th, Starts 50th, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 96th10thGoals35thAssists78thMinutes50thStarts54thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

32% this player0% midfielder median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jan 2022
Peak
€2.5M
Dec 2024
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
12
1 club change
May 2026€2.5MRangers FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, Rangers FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-01-07€75kAberdeen FC
2022-06-27€500kAberdeen FC
2022-12-13€500kAberdeen FC
2023-06-26€500kAberdeen FC
2023-09-22€450kAberdeen FC
2023-12-05€600kAberdeen FC
2024-05-30€1MAberdeen FC
2024-10-02€2MRangers FC
2024-12-03€2.5MRangers FC
2025-06-17€2.5MRangers FC
2025-12-10€2.5MRangers FC
2026-05-20€2.5MRangers FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.652

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 86% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Barron appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).