James
Trafford
GKEngland · Manchester City
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
JamesTrafford
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Manchester City
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Trafford at €25M. Model A, which never saw Trafford during training, estimates €11.3M: the market value is 122% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 16
- Minutes
- 1,440
- Started
- 16/16
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Trafford…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
6% this player0% goalkeeper median69th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1M
- Jun 2022
- Peak
- €30M
- Oct 2025
- Model target
- €25M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €25M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-15 | €1M | Bolton Wanderers |
| 2023-04-05 | €2.5M | Bolton Wanderers |
| 2023-07-12 | €15M | Manchester City |
| 2023-12-19 | €15M | Burnley FC |
| 2024-03-14 | €18M | Burnley FC |
| 2024-05-27 | €18M | Burnley FC |
| 2024-12-30 | €18M | Burnley FC |
| 2025-03-28 | €20M | Burnley FC |
| 2025-05-27 | €22M | Burnley FC |
| 2025-10-17 | €30M | Manchester City |
| 2025-12-09 | €25M | Manchester City |
| 2026-06-03 | €25M | Manchester City |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.797
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 96% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Trafford appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- WilsonRWFulham FC · Premier League€25M
- WatkinsCFAston Villa · Premier League€25M
- KluivertAMAFC Bournemouth · Premier League€25M
- AdamsDMAFC Bournemouth · Premier League€25M
- ChevalierGKParis Saint-Germain · goalkeepers€25M
- AtuboluGKSC Freiburg · goalkeepers€25M
- TrubinGKSL Benfica · goalkeepers€25M
- PendersGKRC Strasbourg Alsace · goalkeepers€25M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).