FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Robert

Navarro

RWSpain · Athletic Bilbao

№ 563137Established €5.7M +0.05

Player dossierLaLiga

RobertNavarro

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Athletic Bilbao
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
24
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Navarro at €6M. Model A, which never saw Navarro during training, estimates €5.7M: the market value is 5% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.05A €5.7M▼ −0.12B €6.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
3,434
Goals
9
Assists
3
Started
35/69
Min / app
50
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Navarro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €5.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Robert Navarro's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 45th, Assists per 90 24th, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 36th, Minutes, last 365 days 74th, European club minutes 77th45thGoals24thAssists73rdMinutes36thStarts74thRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

15% this player0% attacker median77th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€3M
Sept 2019
Peak
€6M
Jun 2024
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
6 club changes
Jun 2026€6MAthletic BilbaoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-10€3MReal Sociedad B
2020-02-11€3MReal Sociedad B
2020-04-08€2.7MReal Sociedad B
2020-10-08€2.5MReal Sociedad B
2021-01-07€2.5MReal Sociedad B
2021-06-30€3MReal Sociedad B
2021-12-30€3MReal Sociedad
2022-06-29€3MReal Sociedad B
2022-11-07€4MReal Sociedad
2023-06-13€3MReal Sociedad
2023-12-22€2MCádiz CF
2024-03-21€3.5MCádiz CF
2024-06-07€6MCádiz CF
2024-12-27€6MRCD Mallorca
2025-06-09€6MRCD Mallorca
2025-12-12€6MAthletic Bilbao
2026-06-05€6MAthletic Bilbao

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.050

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 61% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Navarro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).