FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Hicham

Boudaoui

CMAlgeria · OGC Nice

№ 560593Elite €5.4M +0.79

Player dossierLigue 1

HichamBoudaoui

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
OGC Nice
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Algeria
Age
26
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Boudaoui at €12M. Model A, which never saw Boudaoui during training, estimates €5.4M: the market value is 120% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.79A €5.4M▲ +0.37B €8.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
4,659
Goals
3
Assists
6
Started
51/63
Min / app
74
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Boudaoui…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €5.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Hicham Boudaoui's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 37th, Assists per 90 58th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 72nd, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 73rd37thGoals58thAssists83rdMinutes72ndStarts61stRecent73rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,659 this player2,607 midfielder median83rd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2018
Peak
€15M
Jun 2025
Model target
€12M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
1 club change
Jun 2026€12MOGC NiceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €12M, OGC Nice. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-02-08€50kParadou AC
2018-05-29€100kParadou AC
2018-12-06€300kParadou AC
2019-06-09€800kParadou AC
2019-08-27€1.4MParadou AC
2019-12-19€2MOGC Nice
2020-03-13€4MOGC Nice
2020-04-08€3.6MOGC Nice
2020-10-15€3.6MOGC Nice
2021-01-07€4MOGC Nice
2021-04-09€5MOGC Nice
2021-06-04€5MOGC Nice
2021-12-16€5MOGC Nice
2022-05-30€6.5MOGC Nice
2022-09-19€6MOGC Nice
2022-11-02€5MOGC Nice
2023-03-27€7MOGC Nice
2023-06-27€8MOGC Nice
2023-12-18€9MOGC Nice
2024-06-03€9MOGC Nice
2024-10-07€10MOGC Nice
2024-12-10€10MOGC Nice
2025-06-03€15MOGC Nice
2025-12-15€12MOGC Nice
2026-06-01€12MOGC Nice

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.790

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 72% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Boudaoui appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).