FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Mahdi

Camara

CMFrance · Stade Rennais FC

№ 324795Elite €22.6M −0.63

Player dossierLigue 1

MahdiCamara

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Stade Rennais FC
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
France
Age
27
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Camara at €12M. Model A, which never saw Camara during training, estimates €22.6M: the market value is 47% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €16.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.63A €22.6M▼ −0.32B €16.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
6,042
Goals
9
Assists
7
Started
71/76
Min / app
80
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Camara…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €22.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mahdi Camara's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 54th, Minutes, two years 95th, Starts 91st, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 74th67thGoals54thAssists95thMinutes91stStarts84thRecent74thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,042 this player2,607 midfielder median95th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Oct 2018
Peak
€12M
Jun 2026
Model target
€12M
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
4 club changes
Jun 2026€12MStade Rennais FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €12M, Stade Rennais FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-10-24€150kAS Saint-Étienne
2018-12-17€150kAS Saint-Étienne
2019-06-28€300kStade Lavallois
2019-12-19€1.2MAS Saint-Étienne
2020-04-08€1MAS Saint-Étienne
2020-10-15€3.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2021-04-09€5MAS Saint-Étienne
2021-06-04€5MAS Saint-Étienne
2021-10-08€6MAS Saint-Étienne
2021-12-16€6MAS Saint-Étienne
2022-05-30€6MAS Saint-Étienne
2022-09-19€4MStade Brestois 29
2022-11-02€4MStade Brestois 29
2023-03-27€3MStade Brestois 29
2023-06-27€3MStade Brestois 29
2023-10-16€5MStade Brestois 29
2023-12-18€6MStade Brestois 29
2024-03-19€9MStade Brestois 29
2024-06-03€10MStade Brestois 29
2024-12-10€10MStade Brestois 29
2025-06-03€9MStade Brestois 29
2025-12-15€10MStade Rennais FC
2026-06-01€12MStade Rennais FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.631

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 72% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Camara appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).