FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Dani van den

Heuvel

GKNetherlands · Club Brugge KV

№ 559320Emerging €2.6M −1.18

Player dossierPro League

Dani van denHeuvel

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Club Brugge KV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
23
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Heuvel at €800k. Model A, which never saw Heuvel during training, estimates €2.6M: the market value is 69% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.18A €2.6M▼ −1.54B €3.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
11
Minutes
854
Started
9/11
Min / app
78
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Heuvel…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €2.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dani van den Heuvel's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 1st, Minutes, last 365 days 33rd, European club minutes 74th12thMinutes1stStarts33rdRecent74thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

11% this player0% goalkeeper median74th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Oct 2024
Peak
€800k
Jun 2026
Model target
€800k
Jun 2026
Valuations
6
0 club changes
Jun 2026€800kClub Brugge KVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €800k, Club Brugge KV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-10-02€200kClub Brugge KV
2024-12-11€200kClub Brugge KV
2025-06-12€200kClub Brugge KV
2025-12-10€200kClub Brugge KV
2026-03-13€400kClub Brugge KV
2026-06-04€800kClub Brugge KV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.184

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 22% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Heuvel appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).