FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Christos

Belevonis

CMGreece · Panetolikos

№ 554403Emerging €295k +0.02

Player dossierSuper League

ChristosBelevonis

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Panetolikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
23
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Belevonis at €300k. Model A, which never saw Belevonis during training, estimates €295k: the market value is 2% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €783k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.02A €295k▼ −0.96B €783k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
34
Minutes
1,211
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
12/34
Min / app
36
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Belevonis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €295k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Christos Belevonis's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 46th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 8th, Minutes, last 365 days 9th, European club minutes 30th46thGoals8thAssists18thMinutes8thStarts9thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.08 midfielder median46th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Mar 2021
Peak
€350k
May 2025
Model target
€300k
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
3 club changes
Jun 2026€300kPanetolikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €300k, Panetolikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-03-08€25kAE Karaiskakis Arta
2021-11-01€75kPanetolikos
2022-06-09€150kPanetolikos
2023-02-27€150kVeria NPS
2023-06-19€150kVeria NPS
2023-12-20€150kPanetolikos
2024-05-30€150kPanetolikos
2024-09-26€250kPanetolikos
2024-12-18€300kPanetolikos
2025-05-23€350kPanetolikos
2025-12-12€350kPanetolikos
2026-06-04€300kPanetolikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.015

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 20% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Belevonis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).