FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Francisco

Ortega

LBArgentina · Olympiacos Piraeus

№ 553663Established €5.9M +0.18

Player dossierSuper League

FranciscoOrtega

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Olympiacos Piraeus
League
Super League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
27
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ortega at €7M. Model A, which never saw Ortega during training, estimates €5.9M: the market value is 19% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.18A €5.9M▲ +0.02B €6.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
4,966
Goals
1
Assists
4
Started
57/62
Min / app
80
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ortega…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €5.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Francisco Ortega's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 39th, Assists per 90 68th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 72nd, European club minutes 95th39thGoals68thAssists83rdMinutes76thStarts72ndRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% defender median95th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
May 2018
Peak
€7M
Dec 2025
Model target
€7M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
1 club change
Jun 2026€7MOlympiacos PiraeusValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €7M, Olympiacos Piraeus. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-05-08€400kCA Vélez Sarsfield
2018-12-18€500kCA Vélez Sarsfield
2019-05-23€1MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2019-08-06€2.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2019-12-05€2.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2020-04-08€2.3MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2021-02-08€4MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2021-10-20€4.2MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2022-05-24€4MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2022-10-26€4MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2023-07-04€3.8MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2023-09-21€4.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2023-12-20€5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-03-06€6MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-05-30€6MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-12-18€6MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-05-23€6MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-12-12€7MOlympiacos Piraeus
2026-06-04€7MOlympiacos Piraeus

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.177

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Joint 9th highest observed value among 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 76% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ortega appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).