Vítor
Carvalho
DMBrazil · SC Braga
Player dossierLiga Portugal
VítorCarvalho
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- SC Braga
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Carvalho at €4M. Model A, which never saw Carvalho during training, estimates €7.2M: the market value is 44% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.79. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 64
- Minutes
- 4,179
- Goals
- 6
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 52/64
- Min / app
- 65
- Cards
- 15Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Carvalho…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
32% this player0% midfielder median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Dec 2017
- Peak
- €6M
- Dec 2024
- Model target
- €4M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €4M, SC Braga. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-07 | €50k | Unknown |
| 2020-02-11 | €300k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2020-08-17 | €300k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2021-01-28 | €300k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2021-05-21 | €400k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2021-12-27 | €800k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2022-03-10 | €1.5M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2022-05-31 | €1.5M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2022-11-01 | €1.5M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2023-06-16 | €5M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2023-12-27 | €5M | SC Braga |
| 2024-06-06 | €5M | SC Braga |
| 2024-12-19 | €6M | SC Braga |
| 2025-05-30 | €6M | SC Braga |
| 2025-09-30 | €5M | SC Braga |
| 2025-12-18 | €4M | SC Braga |
| 2026-05-28 | €4M | SC Braga |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.583
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 72% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Carvalho appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SilvaSSSL Benfica · Liga Portugal€4M
- NavarroCFSC Braga · Liga Portugal€4M
- BatistaGKCD Santa Clara · Liga Portugal€4M
- KochorashviliCMSporting CP · Liga Portugal€4M
- BarkleyCMAston Villa · midfielders€4M
- EndoDMLiverpool FC · midfielders€4M
- ThomassonCMRC Lens · midfielders€4M
- KarlströmDMUdinese Calcio · midfielders€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).