FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Martim

Neto

CMPortugal · Elche CF

№ 549027Established €4.3M −0.08

Player dossierLaLiga

MartimNeto

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Elche CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Portugal
Age
23
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Neto at €4M. Model A, which never saw Neto during training, estimates €4.3M: the market value is 8% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.08A €4.3M▲ +0.45B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
2,905
Goals
5
Assists
6
Started
32/53
Min / app
55
Cards
8Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Neto…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €4.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Martim Neto's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 73rd, Assists per 90 80th, Minutes, two years 56th, Starts 35th, Minutes, last 365 days 50th, European club minutes 30th73rdGoals80thAssists56thMinutes35thStarts50thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.19 this player0.09 midfielder median80th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jun 2021
Peak
€5M
Oct 2025
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
3 club changes
Jun 2026€4MElche CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Elche CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-29€200kSL Benfica B
2022-04-01€600kSL Benfica B
2022-05-31€1.5MSL Benfica B
2022-12-28€1.5MSL Benfica B
2023-06-28€1.3MSL Benfica B
2023-12-27€2.5MGil Vicente FC
2024-06-06€3MGil Vicente FC
2024-12-19€3MRio Ave FC
2025-05-30€2.5MRio Ave FC
2025-10-02€5MElche CF
2025-12-12€5MElche CF
2026-06-05€4MElche CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.083

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 50% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Neto appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).