FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Gonçalo Inácio

Gonçalo

Inácio

CBPortugal · Sporting CP

№ 549006World Class €35.9M +0.11

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

GonçaloInácio

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Sporting CP
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
24
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Inácio at €40M. Model A, which never saw Inácio during training, estimates €35.9M: the market value is 11% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €29.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.11A €35.9M▲ +0.30B €29.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
78
Minutes
6,439
Goals
8
Assists
6
Started
74/78
Min / app
83
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Inácio…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €40MModel A €35.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Gonçalo Inácio's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 72nd, Minutes, two years 95th, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 97th, European club minutes 87th90thGoals72ndAssists95thMinutes84thStarts97thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,552 this player1,687 defender median97th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Oct 2020
Peak
€45M
Jun 2024
Model target
€40M
May 2026
Valuations
17
0 club changes
May 2026€40MSporting CPValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €40M, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-22€1MSporting CP
2021-01-28€3MSporting CP
2021-03-25€6MSporting CP
2021-05-21€9MSporting CP
2021-12-27€16MSporting CP
2022-03-10€18MSporting CP
2022-05-31€23MSporting CP
2022-11-01€23MSporting CP
2023-03-02€25MSporting CP
2023-06-16€30MSporting CP
2023-12-27€40MSporting CP
2024-06-06€45MSporting CP
2024-12-19€45MSporting CP
2025-05-30€45MSporting CP
2025-12-18€45MSporting CP
2026-03-19€40MSporting CP
2026-05-28€40MSporting CP

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.109

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Joint 6th highest observed value among 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 97% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Inácio appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).