FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Malthe

Højholt

DMDenmark · Pisa Sporting Club

№ 543822Emerging €3.5M −1.06

Player dossierSerie A

MaltheHøjholt

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Pisa Sporting Club
League
Serie A
Nationality
Denmark
Age
25
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Højholt at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Højholt during training, estimates €3.5M: the market value is 65% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.89. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.06A €3.5M▼ −0.34B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
1,283
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
14/23
Min / app
56
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Højholt…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €3.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Malthe Højholt's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 20th, Starts 35th, Minutes, last 365 days 30th, European club minutes 30th44thGoals8thAssists20thMinutes35thStarts30thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.08 midfielder median44th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2018
Peak
€1.4M
Mar 2025
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
16
2 club changes
May 2026€1.2MPisa Sporting ClubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Pisa Sporting Club. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-21€25kAalborg BK U19
2020-07-31€100kAalborg BK
2020-12-23€150kAalborg BK
2021-06-04€350kAalborg BK
2021-10-06€600kAalborg BK
2021-12-28€1MAalborg BK
2022-06-20€1MAalborg BK
2022-12-22€800kAalborg BK
2023-06-26€800kAalborg BK
2023-12-21€800kAalborg BK
2024-06-18€1MAalborg BK
2024-12-23€1MPisa Sporting Club
2025-03-17€1.4MPisa Sporting Club
2025-06-02€1.2MPisa Sporting Club
2025-12-23€1.2MPisa Sporting Club
2026-05-29€1.2MPisa Sporting Club

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.061

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 11% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Højholt appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).