Ryan
McGowan
CBAustralia · Livingston FC
Player dossierPremiership
RyanMcGowan
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Livingston FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Australia
- Age
- 36
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values McGowan at €25k. Model A, which never saw McGowan during training, estimates €39k: the market value is 36% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €158k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 22
- Minutes
- 1,800
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 19/22
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McGowan…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €25k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
86% this player83% defender median59th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Nov 2007
- Peak
- €900k
- Sept 2013
- Model target
- €25k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 37
- 14 club changes
May 2026: €25k, Livingston FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2007-11-19 | €50k | Heart of Midlothian FC U20 |
| 2008-10-27 | €100k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2010-01-18 | €250k | Ayr United FC |
| 2010-10-22 | €250k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2011-02-03 | €200k | Partick Thistle FC |
| 2011-07-11 | €200k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2012-02-06 | €400k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2012-07-23 | €500k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2013-02-15 | €650k | Shandong Luneng Taishan |
| 2013-07-22 | €800k | Shandong Luneng Taishan |
| 2013-07-25 | €825k | Shandong Luneng Taishan |
| 2013-08-19 | €850k | Shandong Luneng Taishan |
| 2013-09-16 | €900k | Shandong Luneng Taishan |
| 2014-04-03 | €700k | Shandong Luneng Taishan |
| 2014-07-07 | €900k | Shandong Luneng Taishan |
| 2014-11-04 | €800k | Shandong Luneng Taishan |
| 2015-12-07 | €500k | Dundee United FC |
| 2016-06-20 | €500k | Henan Jianye |
| 2016-11-20 | €450k | Henan Jianye |
| 2017-03-05 | €400k | Guizhou Hengfeng Zhicheng |
| 2017-06-19 | €400k | Guizhou Hengfeng Zhicheng |
| 2017-12-11 | €400k | Sharjah FC |
| 2019-09-11 | €400k | Sydney FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €325k | Sydney FC |
| 2020-10-08 | €400k | Sydney FC |
| 2021-03-30 | €400k | Sydney FC |
| 2021-12-30 | €400k | Kuwait SC |
| 2022-09-06 | €400k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €400k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €350k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €250k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €200k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2024-10-04 | €150k | Livingston FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €125k | Livingston FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €75k | Livingston FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €50k | Livingston FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €25k | Livingston FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.444
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
The joint lowest observed value among 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
The joint lowest observed value among 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where McGowan appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GrahamCFFalkirk FC · Premiership€25k
- CarsonGKRoss County FC · Premiership€25k
- ArfieldCMLivingston FC · Premiership€25k
- BokilaCFLivingston FC · Premiership€25k
- FernandesCBSC Farense · defenders€25k
- PapageorgiouRBAE Larisa · defenders€25k
- NielsenCBVejle Boldklub · defenders€25k
- PaulsenCBOdense Boldklub · defenders€25k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).