FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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César

Huerta

LWMexico · RSC Anderlecht

№ 540315Established €1.6M +0.77

Player dossierPro League

CésarHuerta

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
RSC Anderlecht
League
Pro League
Nationality
Mexico
Age
25
Height
171 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Huerta at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Huerta during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 116% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.77A €1.6M▲ +0.26B €2.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,508
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
20/26
Min / app
58
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Huerta…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

César Huerta's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 30th, Assists per 90 39th, Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 79th, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 87th30thGoals39thAssists32ndMinutes79thStarts26thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

23% this player0% attacker median87th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Aug 2019
Peak
€6M
Oct 2024
Model target
€3.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
5 club changes
Jun 2026€3.5MRSC AnderlechtValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3.5M, RSC Anderlecht. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-08-13€400kDeportivo Guadalajara
2020-01-10€400kMonarcas Morelia
2020-04-08€350kMonarcas Morelia
2020-06-27€400kMonarcas Morelia
2020-12-18€1.5MMazatlán FC
2021-04-21€1.5MDeportivo Guadalajara
2021-10-15€1.2MDeportivo Guadalajara
2022-04-11€1MDeportivo Guadalajara
2022-10-31€1.2MUNAM Pumas
2023-03-30€1.2MUNAM Pumas
2023-06-29€1.2MUNAM Pumas
2023-10-03€4MUNAM Pumas
2023-12-29€5MUNAM Pumas
2024-06-14€5MUNAM Pumas
2024-10-10€6MUNAM Pumas
2024-12-11€6MUNAM Pumas
2025-06-12€6MRSC Anderlecht
2025-12-10€5MRSC Anderlecht
2026-06-04€3.5MRSC Anderlecht

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.768

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 73% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 56% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Huerta appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).