Costinha
RBPortugal · Olympiacos Piraeus
Player dossierSuper League
Costinha
RBRight-BackDefender
- Club
- Olympiacos Piraeus
- League
- Super League
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 181 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 4 Jun 2026
Super LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Costinha at €7M. Model A, which never saw Costinha during training, estimates €6.1M: the market value is 15% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 63
- Minutes
- 4,002
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 47/63
- Min / app
- 64
- Cards
- 6Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Costinha…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
24% this player0% defender median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €300k
- May 2021
- Peak
- €7M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €7M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 14
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €7M, Olympiacos Piraeus. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-21 | €300k | Rio Ave FC |
| 2021-11-05 | €400k | Rio Ave FC |
| 2022-04-01 | €650k | Rio Ave FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €900k | Rio Ave FC |
| 2022-11-01 | €900k | Rio Ave FC |
| 2023-03-02 | €1.5M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2023-06-16 | €2M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2023-09-29 | €3M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2023-12-27 | €3.5M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2024-06-06 | €4M | Rio Ave FC |
| 2024-12-18 | €4.5M | Olympiacos Piraeus |
| 2025-05-23 | €5M | Olympiacos Piraeus |
| 2025-12-12 | €6M | Olympiacos Piraeus |
| 2026-06-04 | €7M | Olympiacos Piraeus |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.138
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Super League356 players · median €600k
Joint 9th highest observed value among 356 Super League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 76% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Costinha appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RetsosCBOlympiacos Piraeus · Super League€7M
- PinedaCMAEK Athens · Super League€7M
- ZarouryLWPanathinaikos · Super League€7M
- OrtegaLBOlympiacos Piraeus · Super League€7M
- HenrichsRBRB Leipzig · defenders€7M
- RobertsonLBLiverpool FC · defenders€7M
- HermosoCBAS Roma · defenders€7M
- BensebainiCBBorussia Dortmund · defenders€7M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).