Simão
GKBrazil · Avs Futebol
Player dossierLiga Portugal
Simão
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Avs Futebol
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 189 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Simão at €200k. Model A, which never saw Simão during training, estimates €239k: the market value is 16% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €507k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 23
- Minutes
- 2,063
- Started
- 23/23
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Simão…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Oct 2019
- Peak
- €300k
- Dec 2024
- Model target
- €200k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €200k, Avs Futebol. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-11 | €100k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2019-12-30 | €200k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2021-01-28 | €200k | Operário Ferroviário Esporte Clube (PR) |
| 2021-08-12 | €200k | Operário Ferroviário Esporte Clube (PR) |
| 2022-08-05 | €150k | Operário Ferroviário Esporte Clube (PR) |
| 2023-07-18 | €150k | ABC Futebol Clube (RN) |
| 2023-12-14 | €100k | Avs Futebol |
| 2024-06-20 | €100k | Avs Futebol |
| 2024-12-19 | €300k | Avs Futebol |
| 2025-05-30 | €300k | Avs Futebol |
| 2025-12-18 | €200k | Avs Futebol |
| 2026-05-28 | €200k | Avs Futebol |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.180
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 5% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 9% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Simão appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OliveiraCFVitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal€200k
- TeixeiraCMGD Chaves · Liga Portugal€200k
- JorqueraLWMoreirense FC · Liga Portugal€200k
- MoudjatovicLWCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€200k
- GorgelinGKRC Lens · goalkeepers€200k
- PesjakovGKKrylya Sovetov Samara · goalkeepers€200k
- ThoelenGKRoyal Antwerp FC · goalkeepers€200k
- DarlowGKLeeds United · goalkeepers€200k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).