FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Bryan

Gil

LWSpain · Girona FC

№ 537382Established €4.6M +0.56

Player dossierLaLiga

BryanGil

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Girona FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
25
Height
175 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gil at €8M. Model A, which never saw Gil during training, estimates €4.6M: the market value is 75% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.56A €4.6M▲ +0.11B €7.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
3,873
Goals
4
Assists
6
Started
48/62
Min / app
62
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gil…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €4.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Bryan Gil's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 13th, Assists per 90 47th, Minutes, two years 80th, Starts 80th, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 73rd13thGoals47thAssists80thMinutes80thStarts62ndRecent73rdEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

77% this player59% attacker median80th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Oct 2018
Peak
€30M
Jun 2021
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
9 club changes
Jun 2026€8MGirona FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, Girona FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-10-31€300kSevilla Atlético
2019-02-19€2.5MSevilla FC
2019-06-11€10MSevilla FC
2019-12-20€10MSevilla FC
2020-04-08€9MCD Leganés
2020-10-08€9MSD Eibar
2021-01-05€15MSD Eibar
2021-03-19€20MSD Eibar
2021-06-10€30MSD Eibar
2021-12-23€28MTottenham Hotspur
2022-03-21€25MValencia CF
2022-06-03€18MValencia CF
2022-09-15€12MTottenham Hotspur
2022-11-03€12MTottenham Hotspur
2023-06-13€15MSevilla FC
2023-12-19€16MTottenham Hotspur
2024-05-27€14MTottenham Hotspur
2024-12-27€15MGirona FC
2025-06-09€15MGirona FC
2025-10-02€12MGirona FC
2025-12-12€12MGirona FC
2026-06-05€8MGirona FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.559

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 68% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 74% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gil appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).