FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Han-Noah

Massengo

CMFrance · FC Augsburg

№ 536508Established €8.9M −0.11

Player dossierBundesliga

Han-NoahMassengo

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Augsburg
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
France
Age
24
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Massengo at €8M. Model A, which never saw Massengo during training, estimates €8.9M: the market value is 10% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.11A €8.9M▲ +1.15B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
3,663
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
42/52
Min / app
70
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Massengo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €8.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Han-Noah Massengo's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 33rd, Assists per 90 18th, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 71st, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 30th33rdGoals18thAssists68thMinutes71stStarts81stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,527 this player1,541 midfielder median81st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2.5M
Dec 2018
Peak
€8M
Feb 2020
Model target
€8M
May 2026
Valuations
21
5 club changes
May 2026€8MFC AugsburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8M, FC Augsburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-17€2.5MAS Monaco B
2019-10-17€5MBristol City
2020-02-27€8MBristol City
2020-04-08€7.2MBristol City
2020-10-15€5.5MBristol City
2021-03-10€4MBristol City
2021-06-29€5MBristol City
2021-11-24€4MBristol City
2022-05-13€4MBristol City
2022-10-27€3.5MBristol City
2023-03-27€4MAJ Auxerre
2023-06-27€5MAJ Auxerre
2023-12-19€4MBurnley FC
2024-05-27€4MBurnley FC
2024-09-24€3MBurnley FC
2024-12-30€3MBurnley FC
2025-03-24€5MAJ Auxerre
2025-06-03€5MAJ Auxerre
2025-12-19€5MFC Augsburg
2026-03-20€6MFC Augsburg
2026-05-27€8MFC Augsburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.108

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 60% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 74% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Massengo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).