FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Nahuel

Tenaglia

RBArgentina · Deportivo Alavés

№ 533568Established €4.5M −0.40

Player dossierLaLiga

NahuelTenaglia

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Deportivo Alavés
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Argentina
Age
30
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tenaglia at €3M. Model A, which never saw Tenaglia during training, estimates €4.5M: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €4.5M▼ −0.71B €6.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
74
Minutes
6,517
Goals
4
Assists
2
Started
73/74
Min / app
88
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tenaglia…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €4.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nahuel Tenaglia's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 96th, European club minutes 30th67thGoals42ndAssists96thMinutes94thStarts96thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,510 this player1,687 defender median96th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2017
Peak
€5.2M
Oct 2021
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
1 club change
Jun 2026€3MDeportivo AlavésValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Deportivo Alavés. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-09€50kCA Talleres
2018-05-08€150kCA Talleres
2018-12-18€175kCA Talleres
2019-08-06€1.3MCA Talleres
2019-12-05€2.5MCA Talleres
2020-04-08€2MCA Talleres
2021-02-08€3MCA Talleres
2021-06-11€3.5MCA Talleres
2021-10-20€5.2MCA Talleres
2022-03-21€5MDeportivo Alavés
2022-06-03€3MDeportivo Alavés
2022-12-29€3MDeportivo Alavés
2023-06-14€3MDeportivo Alavés
2023-10-13€2MDeportivo Alavés
2023-12-22€1.8MDeportivo Alavés
2024-06-07€2MDeportivo Alavés
2024-10-11€2.5MDeportivo Alavés
2024-12-27€3MDeportivo Alavés
2025-06-09€3MDeportivo Alavés
2025-12-12€3MDeportivo Alavés
2026-06-05€3MDeportivo Alavés

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.400

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 40% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tenaglia appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).