FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Christian

Conteh

RWGermany · 1.FC Heidenheim 1846

№ 530298Emerging €1.3M +0.11

Player dossierBundesliga

ChristianConteh

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
1.FC Heidenheim 1846
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
26
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Conteh at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Conteh during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 11% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €590k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.11A €1.3M▲ +0.93B €590k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
10
Minutes
462
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
4/10
Min / app
46
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Conteh…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Christian Conteh's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 35th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 0th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 12th, European club minutes 28th35thGoals6thAssists0thMinutes21stStarts12thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.19 this player0.26 attacker median35th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2018
Peak
€1.5M
Mar 2026
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
21
7 club changes
May 2026€1.5M1.FC Heidenheim 1846Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, 1.FC Heidenheim 1846. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-08-08€50kFC St. Pauli II
2019-02-24€50kFC St. Pauli II
2019-07-28€100kFC St. Pauli II
2019-09-25€500kFC St. Pauli II
2019-12-13€500kFC St. Pauli II
2020-04-08€450kFC St. Pauli II
2020-10-14€450kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2021-05-19€400kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2021-12-15€400kSV Sandhausen
2022-03-24€425kFC Dordrecht
2022-06-23€450kFC Dordrecht
2022-12-08€450kSG Dynamo Dresden
2023-06-13€500kSG Dynamo Dresden
2023-12-15€500kVfL Osnabrück
2024-06-06€600kVfL Osnabrück
2024-12-19€500kEintracht Braunschweig
2025-06-19€500kEintracht Braunschweig
2025-10-09€700kEintracht Braunschweig
2025-12-16€800kEintracht Braunschweig
2026-03-20€1.5M1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2026-05-27€1.5M1.FC Heidenheim 1846

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.108

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 12% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Conteh appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).