FairValue

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Ricardo

Velho

GKPortugal · Genclerbirligi Ankara

№ 527026Established €1.2M +0.96

Player dossierSüper Lig

RicardoVelho

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Genclerbirligi Ankara
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Portugal
Age
27
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Velho at €3M. Model A, which never saw Velho during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 160% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.96A €1.2M▲ +0.28B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
4,590
Started
51/51
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Velho…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Ricardo Velho's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 60th, European club minutes 32nd73rdMinutes62ndStarts60thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,590 this player2,790 goalkeeper median73rd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2017
Peak
€5M
Oct 2024
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
22
2 club changes
May 2026€3MGenclerbirligi AnkaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, Genclerbirligi Ankara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-09-08€50kSC Braga B
2018-02-23€75kSC Braga B
2018-06-29€75kSC Braga B
2019-02-12€150kSC Braga B
2019-06-29€50kSC Braga B
2020-08-17€100kSC Farense
2021-01-28€100kSC Farense
2021-05-21€100kSC Farense
2022-04-01€175kSC Farense
2022-06-27€200kSC Farense
2022-12-28€425kSC Farense
2023-06-28€450kSC Farense
2023-12-27€700kSC Farense
2024-03-08€800kSC Farense
2024-06-06€3MSC Farense
2024-10-08€5MSC Farense
2024-12-19€5MSC Farense
2025-05-30€4MSC Farense
2025-10-01€3.5MGenclerbirligi Ankara
2025-12-17€3MGenclerbirligi Ankara
2026-03-05€2.5MGenclerbirligi Ankara
2026-05-21€3MGenclerbirligi Ankara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.955

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 73% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 68% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Velho appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).