FairValue

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Paulo

Vítor

LWBrazil · Karpaty Lviv

№ 524572Emerging €503k +0.33

Player dossierPremier Liha

PauloVítor

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Karpaty Lviv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Brazil
Age
26
Height
168 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vítor at €700k. Model A, which never saw Vítor during training, estimates €503k: the market value is 39% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €707k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.33A €503k▼ −0.01B €707k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,277
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
15/26
Min / app
49
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vítor…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €503k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Paulo Vítor's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 21st, Minutes, two years 26th, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 49th, European club minutes 28th21stGoals21stAssists26thMinutes48thStarts49thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,277 this player1,301 attacker median49th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Dec 2017
Peak
€700k
Dec 2025
Model target
€700k
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
7 club changes
Jun 2026€700kKarpaty LvivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €700k, Karpaty Lviv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-12-07€400kClube de Regatas Vasco da Gama
2018-05-23€300kClube de Regatas Vasco da Gama
2019-02-19€300kMarbella FC
2019-06-29€200kMarbella FC
2019-09-10€200kMarbella FC
2020-02-11€200kMarbella FC
2020-10-08€200kReal Valladolid Promesas
2021-01-07€200kReal Valladolid Promesas
2021-06-30€200kReal Valladolid Promesas
2021-12-30€400kReal Valladolid Promesas
2022-06-29€400kReal Valladolid Promesas
2022-11-01€300kRio Ave FC
2023-06-16€400kRio Ave FC
2023-12-11€400kCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2024-04-18€400kGrêmio Novorizontino
2024-10-29€400kPortimonense SAD
2024-12-16€500kPortimonense SAD
2025-06-23€550kPortimonense SAD
2025-12-18€700kKarpaty Lviv
2026-06-02€700kKarpaty Lviv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.330

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 67% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 22% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vítor appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).