FairValue

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Portrait of Jamie Leweling

Jamie

Leweling

RWGermany · VfB Stuttgart

№ 518505World Class €35.5M +0.12

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

JamieLeweling

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
VfB Stuttgart
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
25
Height
185 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Leweling at €40M. Model A, which never saw Leweling during training, estimates €35.5M: the market value is 13% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €27.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.12A €35.5M▲ +0.36B €27.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
86
Minutes
5,737
Goals
16
Assists
16
Started
66/86
Min / app
67
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Leweling…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €40MModel A €35.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jamie Leweling's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 48th, Assists per 90 83rd, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 79th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 81st48thGoals83rdAssists96thMinutes79thStarts98thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,447 this player1,301 attacker median98th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Sept 2019
Peak
€40M
Mar 2026
Model target
€40M
May 2026
Valuations
23
2 club changes
May 2026€40MVfB StuttgartValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €40M, VfB Stuttgart. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-25€250kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2019-12-13€400kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2020-04-02€1MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2020-04-08€900kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2020-07-15€1.2MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-02-08€1.8MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-06-16€1.5MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-12-22€2MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2022-03-24€4.5MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2022-06-09€4.5MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2022-11-09€4.5M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-03-29€3.5M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-06-22€3M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-12-14€4.5MVfB Stuttgart
2024-03-27€6MVfB Stuttgart
2024-05-29€9MVfB Stuttgart
2024-10-09€13MVfB Stuttgart
2024-12-20€20MVfB Stuttgart
2025-06-05€20MVfB Stuttgart
2025-10-14€25MVfB Stuttgart
2025-12-19€25MVfB Stuttgart
2026-03-20€40MVfB Stuttgart
2026-05-27€40MVfB Stuttgart

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.121

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 93% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 95% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Leweling appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).