FairValue

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Portrait of Ademola Lookman

Ademola

Lookman

LWNigeria · Atlético de Madrid

№ 406040World Class €32.7M +0.20

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

AdemolaLookman

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Atlético de Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Nigeria
Age
28
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lookman at €40M. Model A, which never saw Lookman during training, estimates €32.7M: the market value is 22% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €27.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.20A €32.7M▲ +0.38B €27.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
83
Minutes
5,492
Goals
32
Assists
13
Started
69/83
Min / app
66
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lookman…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €40MModel A €32.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ademola Lookman's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 87th, Minutes, last 365 days 89th, European club minutes 92nd90thGoals74thAssists94thMinutes87thStarts89thRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,492 this player2,242 attacker median94th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Apr 2016
Peak
€60M
Mar 2025
Model target
€40M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
8 club changes
Jun 2026€40MAtlético de MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €40M, Atlético de Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-04-20€500kCharlton Athletic
2016-10-11€1.5MCharlton Athletic
2017-02-20€5MEverton FC
2017-06-28€5MEverton FC
2018-01-02€7MEverton FC
2018-06-05€12MRB Leipzig
2018-10-17€20MEverton FC
2018-12-19€20MEverton FC
2019-06-13€20MEverton FC
2019-12-17€17MRB Leipzig
2020-04-08€13.5MRB Leipzig
2020-09-16€10MRB Leipzig
2020-10-13€10MFulham FC
2021-03-18€13MFulham FC
2021-06-08€11MFulham FC
2021-12-23€9MLeicester City
2022-06-15€10MLeicester City
2022-11-11€20MAtalanta BC
2023-03-21€30MAtalanta BC
2023-06-15€30MAtalanta BC
2023-12-20€30MAtalanta BC
2024-06-05€40MAtalanta BC
2024-12-18€55MAtalanta BC
2025-03-25€60MAtalanta BC
2025-06-17€60MAtalanta BC
2025-10-07€40MAtalanta BC
2025-12-23€35MAtalanta BC
2026-03-16€40MAtlético de Madrid
2026-06-05€40MAtlético de Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.202

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 93% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 95% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lookman appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).