FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Henri

Koudossou

RBGermany · 1.FC Nuremberg

№ 515624Emerging €1.2M +0.01

Player dossierBundesliga

HenriKoudossou

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
1.FC Nuremberg
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
26
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Koudossou at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Koudossou during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 1% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €576k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.01A €1.2M▲ +0.73B €576k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
865
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
5/23
Min / app
38
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Koudossou…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Henri Koudossou's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 78th, Minutes, two years 9th, Starts 0th, Minutes, last 365 days 9th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals78thAssists9thMinutes0thStarts9thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.10 this player0.04 defender median78th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jan 2021
Peak
€2M
Jun 2025
Model target
€1.2M
Dec 2025
Valuations
12
4 club changes
Dec 2025€1.2M1.FC NurembergValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.2M, 1.FC Nuremberg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-11€75kFC Augsburg II
2021-12-15€100kFC Augsburg II
2022-06-27€200kFC Augsburg II
2022-11-10€200kSC Austria Lustenau
2023-06-12€200kSC Austria Lustenau
2024-01-08€450kADO Den Haag
2024-06-10€450kADO Den Haag
2024-12-20€800kFC Augsburg
2025-03-27€1.5MFC Augsburg
2025-06-05€2MFC Augsburg
2025-10-09€1.5M1.FC Nuremberg
2025-12-16€1.2M1.FC Nuremberg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.006

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 10% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Koudossou appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).