FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Alexander

Lind

CFDenmark · FC Nordsjaelland

№ 514895Established €3.2M +0.46

Player dossierSuperliga

AlexanderLind

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
FC Nordsjaelland
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
23
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lind at €5M. Model A, which never saw Lind during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 58% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.58. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.46A €3.2M▲ +0.34B €3.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
1,772
Goals
6
Assists
4
Started
21/23
Min / app
77
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lind…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €3.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Alexander Lind's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 58th, Assists per 90 71st, Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 95th, Minutes, last 365 days 52nd, European club minutes 67th58thGoals71stAssists38thMinutes95thStarts52ndRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

91% this player59% attacker median95th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Mar 2020
Peak
€6M
Dec 2025
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
17
3 club changes
May 2026€5MFC NordsjaellandValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, FC Nordsjaelland. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-03-09€150kSilkeborg IF U19
2020-07-31€200kSilkeborg IF U19
2020-12-23€200kSilkeborg IF U19
2021-06-04€200kSilkeborg IF U19
2021-10-06€350kSilkeborg IF
2021-12-28€300kSilkeborg IF
2022-06-20€250kSilkeborg IF
2022-12-22€250kSilkeborg IF
2023-06-26€250kSilkeborg IF
2023-09-19€800kSilkeborg IF
2023-12-21€2MSilkeborg IF
2024-06-10€3MSilkeborg IF
2024-10-15€3.5MPisa Sporting Club
2024-12-23€4.5MPisa Sporting Club
2025-06-02€5.5MPisa Sporting Club
2025-12-15€6MFC Nordsjaelland
2026-05-25€5MFC Nordsjaelland

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.456

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 93% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lind appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).